Recession Alters Migration Patterns in U.S.

by dani
Comments: No Comments
Published on: July 16, 2010

The recession has had a profound effect on migration patterns in the U.S., reversing the flow of people to former housing-boom states such as Florida and Nevada, the latest data from the Census Bureau show.

In the year ending July 1, 2009, Florida — once the top draw for Americans in search of work and warmer climes — lost more than 31,000 residents to other states, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. Nevada lost nearly 4,000. The numbers are small compared with the states’ populations, but they reflect a significant change in direction: In the year ending July 2006, Florida and Nevada attracted net inflows 141,448 and 41,640 people, respectively.

Bloomberg News

The influx that drove the Las Vegas housing boom is in reverse.

The influx that drove the Las Vegas housing boom, above, is in reverse; below, Tony DiGioia hangs a for-sale sign at a Las Vegas home in August.

The influx that drove the Las Vegas housing boom, above, is in reverse; below, Tony DiGioia hangs a for-sale sign at a Las Vegas home in August.

“The recession coupled with the mortgage meltdown stopped the dominant migration story of the last decade in its tracks,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “The real question is when the Sunbelt states are going to be able to come back. These new numbers suggest no end in sight.”

The census data provide the starkest illustration yet of a shift that began after the peak of the housing boom in 2006. Each year, the movement of people from states in the Northeast and Midwest such as New York, New Jersey and Michigan to job-producing states in the Sunbelt and West has lost momentum as house prices have fallen and jobs have disappeared.

The exception amid the Sunbelt states is Texas, which has managed to avoid much of the housing malaise and unemployment that have plagued other states. In the year ending July 2009, Texas gained 143,423 more residents from other states than it lost, making it the nation’s biggest draw for the fourth year in a row.

Read full article on online.wsj.com

How Far Underwater Do Borrowers Sink Before Walking Away?

by dani
Comments: 1 Comment
Published on: July 15, 2010

By Nick Timiraos

At what point do borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth decide to stop paying the mortgage?

new study from economists at the Federal Reserve Board aims to answer that question. The research found that the median borrower who “strategically” defaults doesn’t walk away from the mortgage until the amount owed exceeds the value of the home by 62%.

The study is bad news for the mortgage industry in that it backs up the idea that a growing share of borrowers are walking away from loans. Concerns are mounting among lenders and investors that some borrowers who owe far more than their homes are worth are now choosing not to pay mortgages that they can afford.

But the silver lining here is that it suggests a rather high threshold for borrowers to walk away.

“The fact that many borrowers continue paying a substantial premium over market rents to keep their homes challenges traditional models of hyper-informed borrowers” choosing to simply walk away, the authors write. The results suggest “that borrowers face high default and transaction costs” that make strategic defaults less widespread than they might otherwise be.

The study examined borrowers in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada who bought homes in 2006 with no money down. Nearly 80% of those borrowers had defaulted by September 2009. The authors then attempt to estimate and separate out defaults caused by job loss and other income shocks from those that had been spurred simply by negative equity.

Read full article on blogs.wsj.com

Fannie Wants To “Lockout” Borrowers Who Strategically Default

by dani
Comments: No Comments
Published on: July 15, 2010

By Nick Timiraos

Fannie Mae said on Wednesday that it would “lockout” borrowers from getting a new loan for seven years if they “strategically default” on a property. The move is the latest effort by the mortgage industry to stem major losses that could result if more borrowers who can pay their mortgages choose to walk away because they owe far more than their homes are worth.

The government-owned mortgage-finance giant said that borrowers who walk away but have the capacity to pay for the loan or didn’t complete a foreclosure-alternative in good faith would be ineligible for seven years from getting a new loan backed by Fannie.  Borrowers with “extenuating circumstances” might be able to get a new loan sooner.

“Walking away from a mortgage is bad for borrowers and bad for communities and our approach is meant to deter the disturbing trend toward strategic defaulting,” said Terence Edwards, Fannie’s executive vice president for credit portfolio management. The company said it would also take legal action to recoup the amount of lost mortgage debt in states that allow for such deficiency judgments.

The move comes amid greater concern that American homeowners, particularly in areas that have seen huge home price declines, may be ready to walk away from loans they can pay. Some 24% of homes with a mortgage are underwater, or worth less than the amount owed, according to CoreLogic, a real-estate research firm. A Morgan Stanley report estimated that around 12% of defaults in February had been strategic.

Even as Fannie tries to discourage homeowners from walking away or going into foreclosure, it is also relaxing some guidelines for borrowers that face hardship and make a good faith effort to avoid foreclosure. Under previously-announced rules that will take effect next month, some troubled borrowers who give up their homes could see that waiting period reduced. Homeowners that voluntarily transfer ownership through a “deed in lieu of foreclosure” or that complete a short sale, where a home is sold for less than the amount owed, will be eligible in two years to apply for a new mortgage backed by Fannie.

In 2008, Fannie revised to five years from four the amount of time borrowers with a foreclosure must wait to receive a home loan backed by the company. Foreclosures and short sales generally have the same effect on a borrower’s credit score and can stay on a credit report for up to seven years.

Read full article on blogs.wsj.com

Realtors Score a Win on Seller Financing

by dani
Comments: No Comments
Published on: July 15, 2010

Jessica Holzer reports from Washington:

Most people write a check to a lender or mortgage servicer when they want to pay their mortgage. A tiny minority of borrowers, however, make their monthly payment directly to the person who sold them their home. A “seller carry-back,” in industry jargon, may be an unusual way to finance a home sale, but it accounts for enough transactions that the National Association of Realtors lobbied to kill a provision in the financial-overhaul bill pending in Congress that would have put curbs on the practice.

The lobbying, for the most part, paid off.

The House-passed version of the bill would have required people to register as mortgage originators if, more than once over a three-year period, they finance a sale of property they own.  The provision was written into the bill out of concern that unscrupulous businesses would try to get around new tough lending rules by financing real estate transactions themselves.

But this week, Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.), who are the lead House and Senate negotiators working to finish the financial-overhaul legislation, agreed to relax the limitation on seller financing to three properties in one year.

While short of the full exclusion that Realtors were looking for, the new language makes it much easier for seller-financers to avoid registering as mortgage originators.

“We applaud Mr. Frank for a proposing a way to allow sound real estate transactions to come to closing,” Lucien Salvant, NAR managing director of public affairs, said in an email.

Read full article on blogs.wsj.com

Fannie Mae Homepath Mortgages for Real Estate Investors

[Note from SimplyDoIt: I could not find any info about this program on homepath.com]

With low down payments, no appraisal fee and no mortgage insurance, why not?
By James Kimmons, About.com Guide

Fannie Mae Homepath Renovation Mortgage Logo

At Homepath.com, Fannie Mae provides a search site for homes pre-qualified for their Homepath Mortgage and possible financing of the renovations as well for real estate investors. Here are some of the highlights:

  • Low interest rates for fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, and interest only loans.
  • 3% down payment, and can be borrowed money.
  • No appraisal fees.
  • No mortgage insurance (higher rates).
  • Companion Homestyle Renovation Mortgage product for investors.

With thousands of homes already approved for this program in states like Florida and Arizona, there are also a great many in other states, as foreclosures are pretty much everywhere. Searching the Homepath site, you’re going straight to the homes that can be purchased under this program, and there is a nice selection, with all of the details about each.

Read full article on realestate.about.com

Pain Vs. Pleasure: Evaluating Risk Tolerance in Real Estate

by dani
Categories: General Investing
Comments: No Comments
Published on: July 15, 2010

by JOHN FEDRO on MAY 28, 2010

risks and real estate investingIn a previous article we discussed some of the risks and rewards of real estate investing.  While writing that article I very quickly discovered that there is no “right or wrong” answer when it comes to a magic formula to deciding which deals are too risky for the rewards offered.  The ultimate voice that makes the final decisions between risk or reward, buy or pass, take action or don’t is your own.

So why can one person’s risk tolerance vary so wildly from another person’s?  One rational investor’s decision to take a risk on a certain deal may make complete sense to that investor, however another equally seasoned investor is running away from the same deal.  Both investors are right in their own minds and both investors get exactly what they want, gain pleasure and avoid pain.

It was only after listening to Tony Robbins on audio book and understanding that humans are naturally “instant gratification” creatures that I understood why some investors seem so motivated while others never seem to do anything.  All people take actions for two different reasons in this world, either to avoid pain or increase pleasure.

Pleasure: This topic I believe has been discussed to death, over analyzed by countless books and most self-help gurus.  Don’t believe me? Have you ever noticed all the solo sections or complete books that deal specifically with “Goal Setting.”  Goals, whether long or short-term are simply a list of unique pleasurable consequences (with dates) each of us are striving towards.

Pleasure is tricky; be aware of the consequences of your so-called pleasurable actions.  If you choose to watch television when you know you should be making offers on properties, the pleasure here is simply to avoid the immediate pain of taking action.  If you choose to keep acquiring immediate gratification through procrastination you are only stealing from your potential free time in the future and are delaying your goals.

Pain: As human beings most of us do not like the feeling of pain in our bodies, the same goes with our mind.  We often spend countless dollars trying to cure or repair our outward/inward problems and pains.  Often times we are such instant gratification junkies that we fail to see how to use our short-term, temporary pain to get what we want.

Read full article on biggerpockets.com

Trulia.com Introduces Rent vs. Buy Index

by dani
Categories: US Real Estate
Comments: No Comments
Published on: July 14, 2010

Dollars !
Creative Commons License photo credit: pfala

Today Trulia announced America’s Top 10 Cities to Buy vs. Rent and the Top 10 Cities to Rent vs Buy.  Trulia calculated the price-to-rent ratio using the average list price compared with average rent on 2 bedroom apartments, condos and townhomes listed on Trulia.com. To create the list, Trulia analyzed the largest 50 cities in America, by population.

Top 10 Cities to Buy vs. Rent

City Price-to-Rent Ratio
1. Minneapolis, Minnesota 8
2. Arlington, Texas 8
3. Miami, Florida 8
4. Fresno, California 8
5. San Antonio, Texas 8
6. Mesa, Arizona 9
7. Jacksonville, Florida 9
8. Phoenix, Arizona 10
9. El Paso, Texas 10
10. Las Vegas, Nevada 11

“At the peak of the real estate bubble, cities like Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas were not affordable for many. Now the opposite is true,” said Pete Flint, co-founder and CEO of Trulia. “Home sellers in these hard hit areas are forced to lower their prices to compete with all the foreclosures on the market. As a result , these unattainable markets are so affordable it makes better financial sense to buy than rent.”

Top 10 Cities to Rent vs. Buy

City Price-to-Rent Ratio
1. New York, New York 33
2. Omaha, Nebraska 26
3. Seattle, Washington 25
4. Portland, Oregon 22
5. San Francisco, California 22
6. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 21
7. Kansas City, Missouri 20
8. San Diego, California 20
9. Cleveland, Ohio 20
10. Dallas, Texas 19

“It is not a surprise to see cities like New York and San Francisco on the ‘Rent’ cities but I was surprised to see areas like Omaha, Oklahoma City and Kansas City on our rental list, “said Flint “We’re not suggesting that it’s unwise to buy in these areas, though – just that it’s significantly more expensive than renting. In many of these cities, even though home buying is much more costly thanrenting, prices are still much lower than they have been in a long, long time.”

To see the Top 50 City Rent v Buy Index, please click here to download.

Read Full article on truliablog.com

Real estate Economics by Wikipedia

by dani
Categories: Econimics
Comments: No Comments
Published on: July 14, 2010

Real estate economics is the application of economic techniques to real estate markets. It tries to describe, explain, and predict patterns of prices, supply, and demand. The closely related fields of housing economics is narrower in scope, concentrating on residential real estate markets as does the research of real estate trends focus on the business and structural changes impacting the industry. Both draw on partial equilibrium analysis (supply and demand), urban economics, spatial economics, extensive research, surveys and finance.

The main participants in real estate markets are:

Overview of real estate markets

  • Owner/User – These people are both owners as well as tenants. They purchase houses or commercial property as an investment and also to live in or utilize as a business.
  • Owner – These people are pure investors. They do not consume the real estate that they purchase. Typically they rent out or lease the property to someone else.
  • Renter – These people are pure consumers.
  • Developers – These people prepare raw land for building which results in new product for the market.
  • Renovators – These people supply refurbished buildings to the market.
  • Facilitators – This includes banks, real estate brokers, lawyers, and others that facilitate the purchase and sale of real estate.

The owner/user, owner, and renter comprise the demand side of the market, while the developers and renovators comprise the supply side. In order to apply simple supply and demand analysis to real estate markets a number of modifications need to be made to standard microeconomic assumptions and procedures. In particular, the unique characteristics of the real estate market must be accommodated. These characteristics include:

  • Durability – Real estate is durable. A building can last for decades or even centuries, and the land underneath it is practically indestructible. Because of this, real estate markets are modeled as a stock/flow market. About 98% of supply consists of the stock of existing houses, while about 2% consists of the flow of new development. The stock of real estate supply in any period is determined by the existing stock in the previous period, the rate of deterioration of the existing stock, the rate of renovation of the existing stock, and the flow of new development in the current period. The effect of real estate market adjustments tend to be mitigated by the relatively large stock of existing buildings.
  • Heterogeneous – Every piece of real estate is unique, in terms of its location, in terms of the building, and in terms of its financing. This makes pricing difficult, increases search costs, creates information asymmetry and greatly restricts substitutability. To get around this problem, economists (beginning with Muth (1960)) define supply in terms of service units, that is, any physical unit can be deconstructed into the services that it provides. Olsen (1969) describes these units of housing services as an unobservable theoretical construct. Housing stock depreciates making it qualitatively different from a new building. The market equilibrating process operates across multiple quality levels. Further, the real estate market is typically divided into residential, commercial, and industrial segments. It can also be further divided into subcategories like recreational, income generating, area, historical/protected, etc.
  • High Transaction costs – Buying and/or moving into a home costs much more than most types of transactions. These costs include search costs, real estate fees, moving costs, legal fees, land transfer taxes, and deed registration fees. Transaction costs for the seller typically range between 1.5 – 6% of the purchase price. In some countries in Continental Europe, transaction costs for both buyer and seller can range between 15 – 20%.
  • Long time delays – The market adjustment process is subject to time delays due to the length of time it takes to finance, design, and construct new supply, and also due to the relatively slow rate of change of demand. Because of these lags there is a great potential for disequilibrium in the short run. Adjustment mechanisms tend to be slow, relative to more fluid markets.
  • Both an investment good and a consumption good – Real estate can be purchased with the expectation of attaining a return (an investment good), or with the intention of using it (a consumption good), or both. These functions can be separated (with market participants concentrating on one or the other function) or can be combined (in the case of the person that lives in a house that they own). This dual nature of the good means that it is not uncommon for people to over-invest in real estate, that is, to invest more money in an asset than it is worth on the open market.
  • Immobility – Real estate is locationally immobile (save for mobile homes, but the land underneath them is still immobile). Consumers come to the good rather than the good going to the consumer. Because of this, there can be no physical market-place. This spatial fixity means that market adjustment must occur by people moving to dwelling units, rather than the movement of the goods. For example, if tastes change and more people demand suburban houses, people must find housing in the suburbs, because it is impossible to bring their existing house and lot to the suburb (even a mobile home owner, who could move the house, must still find a new lot). Spatial fixity combined with the close proximity of housing units in urban areas suggest the potential for externalities inherent in a given location.

Demand for housing

The main determinants of the demand for housing are demographic. However other factors like income, price of housing, cost and availability of credit, consumer preferences, investor preferences, price of substitutes and price of complements all play a role.

Read full article on en.wikipedia.org

Hot Russian Spy worked as…a Real Estate Agent? Go figure…

by dani
Categories: Properties
Tags:
Comments: No Comments
Published on: July 14, 2010
To Russia with love....
To Russia with love….
Associated Press

The tabloids have been eating up this Hollywood story straight out of James Bond movies about a hot red-head named Anna Chapman, 28, who was among 10 suspects who pleaded guilty in New York last week to a charge of procuring information for a foreign government. The undercover “agents” were sent to Russia from the United States on Friday in a swap for four Russians accused of spying for the West.

One other alleged spy, Tracey Foley, also in real estate, worked for online real-estate company Redfin, while the most talked about beauty, Anna Chapman, was in New York City’s high-end real estate scene operating an apartment rentals website.

Chapman, seen in the photo, according to her bio page on LinkedIn.com, she listed herself as the chief executive officer of PropertyFinder Ltd., which maintained a website featuring real estate listings in Moscow, Spain, Bulgaria and other countries.

While details of the eleven arrests made of alleged Russian spies continue to develop, it is notable that two happen to have chosen the real estate profession. Upon the arrest of non-hot spy Tracey Foley, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman explained in a blog statement that “her employment screening was clean, her track record as a contract field agent at Redfin was good and that she has worked at other brokerages like Wiechart since 2007.” Apparently the background check didn’t report any felonies…or the fact that she was a Russian Spy, its hard to get work with that kind of baggage.

Read full article on examiner.com

Investing In The Bay Area vs. Out-of-State

Let the numbers do the talking


Assumption San Jose Orlando
Price $450,000 $75,000
Down-payment 20% $90,000 $15,000
Mortgage $360,000 $60,000

Rent $1,750 $1,000

Expenses
P&I 5.5% $1,700 $320
Taxes $330 $125
Insurance $150 $60
Property Mang. 8.0% $0 $80
Other $0 $83
Total $2,180 $668

Cash Flow Monthly -$430 $332

Annual -$5,160 $3,980

After 10 years 200% $900,000 $150,000

-$61,920 $47,760

$838,080 $197,760

Properties are available in Orlando, Phoenix, Atlanta, Denver and Oklahoma city.

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